Posted by
Patrick Henry on Tuesday, August 24, 2010 12:01:09 AM
An odd question to ask 18 months into a first term. Yet it is already being asked
by quiet voices on both the right and the left. What could make a man walk away
from the presidency of the United States of America absent impending impeachment?
Perhaps several things.
If Obama chooses to run again, it will not be in any sense a repeat of the 2008
campaign. Now he has a record to run on, and given his poll numbers it is clear that
his record and his policies are stern liabilities. In 2008, his campaign was able to
control the media, keeping Obama on his script and denying reporters the chance to
question him. His then Director of Communications, Anita Dunn, even bragged about
how they were able to manipulate the press. That boast, the failure of promised
transparency and the controversial nature of his actual agenda will keep that from
happening again, although the slobbering sycophants at MSNBC will still get "chills
up their legs" and throw him softballs. And he will no longer be able to rely on the
now disgraced ACORN to register the dead as voters.
Campaign finance has also changed. When the Supreme Court handed down the
ruling that unions and corporations could not be barred from spending their money
to influence political campaigns, Democrats went hysterical. Subsequently they
proposed and tried to pass legislation to circumvent the court, which Republicans
blocked because while it limited corporations, it did not limit unions. In that, at
least, Republicans were as smart as Democrats were transparent. Unions always
support Democrats, pouring hundreds of millions into Dem coffers. Corporations,
on the other hand, are apolitical. They tend to back winners, and not just
candidates who can win but those who can muster controlling blocks in congress.
The CEOs and Directors of corporations can read polls too. And if polls suggest
Republicans may win, as they do today, many large corporate contributions will
go to Republicans, thus cancelling out the lopsided Democratic fundraising
advantage afforded by the unions. No wonder Obama takes a shot at either the
Supremes or the GOP in every speech he makes these days for raining on his
parade. Also, the Federal Election Commission will soon be launching a far-
ranging investigation into Obama's fundraising tactics, particularly those having
to do with ACORN in the '08 election. Whether wrongdoing is cited or not, the
level of scrutiny will be heightened, thus dampening opportunities for illicit gifts.
When the 2011 congress convenes, it will certainly feature either a greatly
diluted Democratic majority or the Republicans in control of one or both houses.
This means Obama priorities like climate change legislation and union card check
are DOA. It also means his spending wings will be clipped, and a number of his
priorities will flatly not be funded. It will be difficult, after two more years, to
show any significant accomplishments unless Obama completely changes directions.
Can he learn from Bill Clinton and "pivot" away from the extreme left and back
toward the middle? While anything is possible, this is doubtful. Clinton decided that
he would rather remain president than be right according to the orthodoxy of his
party. So he started meeting the GOP in the middle on issue after issue, and he got
re-elected. But Obama is far more an ideologue than Clinton ever was. Plunging
ever leftward, he has flown in the face of public preference on issue after issue in
the delusional assumption that they would eventually "catch up" and understand
that he was right all along. That's not happening. His poll numbers are so far
underwater that if the election were held now he would lose to a generic (unnamed)
Republican. More than half of Americans want his signature healthcare bill, the
brightest jewel in his crown, repealed. Given his ego, the biggest in recent presidential
history, it is highly dubious that he would be willing to eat the crow of compromise
with those so diametrically opposed to his views. If he does that, he likely loses
everything he has won, and the left along with it. My bet? The man won't budge.
He would rather be right (in his own eyes) than president.
Don't undersell his ego. Obama is most of all about Obama. To be trounced by
a Republican after just one term in office would be humiliating. Unless he can
turn things around in two years that is exactly what he's looking at. His own people
have conceded that the effects of the recession, including high unemployment and
reduced national productivity are likely to last another four years. Since the
economy is the bellwether issue, it seems doubtful that a turnaround of the magnitude
he needs is in the cards. And if the GOP takes over, as some believe they will, they
will get a lion's share of the credit for any improvement. His presidency will languish,
especially if he refuses to work with them. He will quit rather than take an assured
whipping.
And he, just like every other president, must take into consideration the future and
well-being of his party. By stepping down, he could wipe the slate at least semi-clean
and make way for a different face, perhaps Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to run
a more competitive race. The question is, if things do not drastically improve for
Obama, is he willing to take the whole Democratic ship down with him? Only time
will tell. But there are certainly enough plausible reasons for him to make the one-
and-out-call on his own, before Americans make it for him. Stay tuned.