Posted by
Patrick Henry on Monday, July 19, 2010 9:42:20 PM
Big change is coming in November, or so we're told. Americans no longer trust
Barack Obama and the Democratic party to lead. Hope is elusive, with 62% saying
the country is going in the wrong direction. And the only change people seem to
want is change in Washington. So what's really going to happen in November.
Take the pundits, pollsters, talking heads and polls of polls with a grain of salt.
Look, instead, at four tried and true indicators of how the political wind is really
blowing, and you won't miss the mark by much.
First, apply the "reach" test. Which party or candidate is grasping at the furthest
straw(s) to claim an unproven achievement or hang something around their opponent's
neck? This one doesn't look good for Democrats. They continue to tout a healthcare
reform bill 60% of voters want repealed, and mumbling voodoospeak about "jobs
saved" by a stimulus most Americans don't think has made much real difference in
the stuttering economy. Now, Obama is haranguing Republicans because they
won't agree to add another $34 billion to the deficit to re-up unemployment for
2.5 million people UNLESS it is paid for up front (which Obama has a plenty big
enough slush fund to do if he was so inclined). Everyone who follows politics
recalls how, in February, Obama got on his soap box and demanded the Senate
pass a "PayGo" law, mandating that expenditures be balanced by revenues or cuts.
They did, and now he's sandbagging Republicans for holding him to a law he
demanded. The hypocrisy is rank, and the argument is a preposterous reach. Then
there's the NAACP, one of the Democratic party's favorite shills, going on a rant
about unproven, undocumented, alleged Tea Party Racism. These are all "reaches"
designed to blame opponents for imaginary problems and deny responsibility for
doing what they are supposed to. People aren't as dumb as Joe Biden thinks, and
those who make the biggest reaches usually end up wearing them at election time.
A second reliable test is to watch for the "rattlesnakes commiting suicide." You know,
the old saw about poisonous rattlers dying from self-inflicted wounds. Watch for the
party or adminsitration with the most internal strife, and you'll know who is really in
the worst trouble. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs suggested that there are
enough seats in play in the House that Republicans could take over. Within twenty-four
hours Speaker Nancy Pelosi and others were attacking Gibbs. Obama had a testy
meeting with House members who believed he wasn't doing enough to support their
re-election. Joe Biden denied the NAACP's bogus racism charge against the Tea Party
on national television. I guess that crock stank too bad for even old Joe. Immigration
advocacy groups who lean Democrat are mad because immigration reform is nowhere
in sight. Anti-war leftists are angry because we're still in Iraq, struggling in Afghanistan
and Gitmo is still open. There are many more examples, but mark it well, the rattlers
are committing suicide.
Third, find the most prominent blowhard in the party that seems to be in the worst
trouble. Listen carefully to what he says, and bet your money on the exact opposite.
Clearly the Democrats are in the most trouble, and their biggest blowhard is none other
than Joe "Foot-In-The-Mouth-Up-To-The-Kneecap" Biden. This is the guy who declared
Brussels, Belgium, the center of the free world and expressed condolences to a foreign
dignitary over the loss of his mother who was still very much alive. Sunday, on
national TV again, old Joe guaranteed that Democrats would "shock the heck" out of
everybody and that there would be no shift in power come November. Within minutes
of his statement, the odds in Vegas on a Republican takeover nosedived. If Biden says
something, bank on the opposite.
My fourth and final test is the "festering sore" test. For the Bush Republicans it was
Iraq and Katrina. For Obama it is the BP Gulf oil spill, the unpopular healthcare bill
passed by dubious means in violation of his promise not to raise taxes on the middle
class the economy and the immigration brouhaha/Arizona lawsuit. These combine to
make the president, the leader of his party, a liability rather than an asset to Democrats
seeking re-election. There are simply too many of them and they are too toxic. Each one
will cost Democrats votes in November.
These ae four great tests. I have applied them to fourteen consecutive national elections
and haven't been wrong yet. Maybe you have some others. Let me know.