Posted by
Patrick Henry on Tuesday, April 28, 2009 9:23:47 PM
All day the blogs and cable news outlets have been abuzz about the defection of
Pennsylvanian Senator Arlen Specter from the Republican party to become a Democrat
and the potential 60th vote in a filibuster-proof majority. While conservatives vilified
him as a traitor, Democrats rolled out the red carpet, including a welcoming call from
the president himself. Is all now lost for the Republican party? What does it all mean
for American politics?
Specter's sickly protests to the contrary, his move reflects no shift either in his own
ideology or that of the Republican party. It is about -- and ONLY about -- his realization
that he had no chance of being re-elected in Pennsylvania as a Republican. He only
narrowly won his last primary against Pat Toomey, a fiscal conservative, and lost
whatever remaining Republican capital he had by votingwfith Democrats on the
Porkulus spending bill. He is banking on the (estimated) 200,000 Pennsylvania
Democrats who flipped to Obama in the presidential election continuing to vote
Democratic in the 2010 primary. That, in itself is a substantial gamble, given the
disconnect betwee Obama's personal popularity and the dwindling ratings of his
policy initiatives. It also fails to take into account the "Bush rejection" factior
that no doubt drove many voters in the presidential election, but may not drive
them in the mid-terms, particularly when the consequences of some of the Obama
policies begin to play out. We'll see.
On the shorter term, it is doubtful if Specter, a centrist at heart, will vote a straight
party line with the Democrats. He is already on record as opposing Obama's nominee
for deputy attorney general, the union's card check bill and seems to have significant
reservations about cap-and-trade. He will doubtless receive a lot of pressure, from
party leadership as well as from the unions in Pennsylvania, but the odds are he'll
continue to be a centrist maverick. Changing parties may not change the man, provided
Republicans do not treat him as such a pariah that they drive him into the Democratic
column on vote after vote.
Juan William of National Public Radar, smilingly pronounced Specter's move as
another nail in the coffin of the Republican party which, he announced gleefully,
is now a southern party of old white men. I guess the partisan Mr. Williams
doesn't read the thousands of rightist blogs, consider the Young Republicans viable,
or even consider that the Obama administration might, in very short order, lead the
country tio ruin. He points out correctly that in polls 46% of Americans admit to
being Democrats, whil only 28% favor the GOP. Taken at face values those numbers
may be daunting, but they disregard the tendency of Democratic voters to stay at
when they think everything is under control, the oft changing vote swings of the
independents who really decide elections and the ability of the Republicans to
accomplish a grass-roots turnout of the 52% of registered voters in the last
election. This "Silent Majority" is the sleeping giant that will likely be aroused
by the oppression of cap-and-trade and the prospect of rationed healthcare. When
the Repuublicans swept into power in the eary 90's on the "Clinton disgust" factor
the Democratic party was also pronounced dead. Williams has simply engaged in
wishful partisan thinking, disguised as news commentary, that he may well live to
eat.
But, as Specter himself sheepishly confessed before the TV cameras, his prospects
in the Pennsylvania Republican primary were bleak, at best. And that reveals what's
really wrong with American politics. If Specter had experienced an epiphany revealing
Barack Obama's Messishship, we could understand. He didn't! If he had felt so strongly
that the Democrats were right on one or two critical issues, it might be easier to cut
him some slack. He doesn't. Convicted by his own words, Specter is guilty of placing
his own re-election, the retention of his own personal power above party, idelology
and yes, even his duty to Pennsylvania voters. The Democrats will try their best to
reward such spinelessness and banal values. But the Pennsylvania electorate may not.